Full-price demand building. Acquisition quality at or above baseline, peaking in the 1-19 Nov window, the best of the year. Commit the spend here.
Harvest with the owned list and warm audiences. Customers first acquired here are worth 12-38% less at a true 12-month runway. Cap cold, capture gift buyers.
Boxing Day is an acquisition event, not just clearance: baseline-quality customers with the highest subscription attach of any window.
Every customer with a full 12 months of history (2020-2025, n=19,338). Repeat excludes subscription auto-rebills. The green rows are where acquisition money earns a premium; the grey rows are where it leaks.
| Acquired | n | First AOV | 12mo Repeat | 12mo LTV vs baseline | Sub Attach | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of Year (baseline) |
7,869 | £57 | 38.5% | 8.4% | BASELINE | |
| Early Q4 1 Sep - 31 Oct |
2,642 | £65 | 35.9% | 7.4% | INVEST | |
| Early Nov 1 - 19 Nov |
1,627 | £73 | 36.7% | 9.1% | INVEST: BEST WINDOW | |
| BFCM 20 Nov - 2 Dec |
2,362 | £63 | 30.1% | 6.9% | BREAKEVEN ONLY (COLD) | |
| Dec Gifting 3 - 24 Dec |
3,206 | £62 | 26.3% | 6.2% | CAPTURE-GATED | |
| Boxing Day / Clearance 25 Dec - 15 Jan |
1,632 | £58 | 39.8% | 9.7% | INVEST (UNDERRATED) |
The prior board thesis (Sep-Oct worth 1.53x Nov-Dec) was measured on cohorts of unequal age. At a true 12-month runway the gap is ~1.24x, and the real prize moves to 1-19 Nov. Boxing Day buyers hit 14.2% sub attach in 2024, the highest of any window.
Data source: autopsy-2026-07-07.json over cached all-time Shopify pull (79,981 clean orders, 29,586 customers, through 27 May 2026)
One product family carries the quarter: Starter Packs = 40% of product revenue, Refills another 36%. The core Starter Pack alone is 24% as a single product. Q4 content, offers and spend should push the starter-to-refill machine, with seasonal scents (cyan bars) as the freshness layer, each individually small.
Cyan = Christmas/seasonal SKUs. Top 10 products = 45.7% of revenue; the tail is 230 SKUs.
| Window | New customers | Starter Packs | Refills | Gift Sets | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Q4 | 1,840 | 56% | 33% | 3% | 27% |
| Early Nov | 1,009 | 61% | 36% | 12% | 23% |
| BFCM | 1,639 | 60% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Dec Gifting | 1,411 | 57% | 62% | 31% | 23% |
| Boxing Day / Clearance | 410 | 38% | 55% | 1% | 27% |
Starter Packs are the acquisition product in every window until December, when gift sets (31%) and refills take over. The acquisition creative should sell the Starter Pack until ~2 Dec, then rotate to gift-set and gift-guide angles.
Data source: products-q4-2026-07-07.json: line-item revenue net of discounts, Q4 2025 season (1 Sep 2025 - 5 Jan 2026), subscription rebills excluded
Data source: autopsy returner trace: 2,097 existing-customer Q4 2025 buyers, rebills excluded; first-category propensity over 19,338 full-runway customers
Full-price demand building. Cheapest auctions of the quarter. Under-committing here is the unrecoverable mistake.
Christmas line launches mid-Oct. EA list opens ~20 Oct. Gifting content library live.
Split the month: full appetite to 19 Nov (best cohort of the year). Cold prospecting inside BFCM capped at ~£25-30k.
Shift £10-15k from Dec-gifting cold (worst cohort) to Boxing Day acquisition (baseline LTV, top sub attach).
Total £474k recommended vs £284k dashboard plan: the £190k gap is decision #1. Marginal cut line: cold spend must clear marginal MER of 1/contribution-margin (margin: ask Casey). Flex triggers written in advance: EA list size at 1 Nov, branded search trend, marginal MER at current step.
Data source: Q4 planning board thesis-weighted plan (2 Jul 2026); composition re-cut per cohort autopsy verdicts
| Sep | Oct | 1-19 Nov | 20-30 Nov | 1-24 Dec | 26 Dec - 15 Jan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drops | Drop 1 late Sep, full price | Christmas line mid-Oct | Final drop by ~10 Nov | none | sell-through only | none |
| Offers | none: value ladder holds | none public; EA opens ~20 Oct | full price holds | EA 26 Nov; BFCM 27-30 Nov | GWP 1-15 Dec; cutoff urgency | Boxing Day up to 30%, sub-forward |
| Email / SMS | 2-3 per wk value + drop | gift guide; EA drive; wake the 7,084 | EA warm-up; gifting content | daily to VIPs; SMS at EA + BF open | gifting; cutoff SMS; recipient capture | Boxing Day SMS; sub pitch |
| Content | Shoot A delivers 1 Sep | Shoot B gifting library delivers | early-Nov gifting creative (own round) | offer overlays, pre-shot | UGC / unboxing capture | reuse |
| Site | bundles + PDPs staged | gift guide live; EA gate tested | cutoff banner staged | BFCM theme live | cutoff countdown, real carrier dates | clearance + sub cross-sell |
Data source: board cadence (2025 proven) + autopsy adjustments: early-Nov creative round, wake campaign, recipient capture, Boxing Day acquisition
| Decision | By | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Fund the £190k gap vs re-cut Nov/Dec targets | ASAP | Fund the 1-19 Nov and Boxing Day increments first: best cohort math in the quarter |
| BF offer mechanic | 1 Oct | offer-builder run; contain core-product discount to the 4-day window |
| Nov cold caps: 1-19 vs 20-30 | with budget sign-off | Full appetite to 19 Nov; ~£25-30k cold inside BFCM |
| Boxing Day: clearance only vs acquisition event | 1 Nov | Acquisition event with subscription-forward angle |
| Dec gifting cold: capture gate or cut | 1 Nov | Run only with gift-recipient capture attached |
| Wake campaign for the 7,084 | build by 1 Oct | Send early Oct, value-first, before EA opens |
| EA mechanic + list-size trigger for Nov flex | 20 Oct | Set the 1 Nov target number |
| Contribution margin for the marginal cut line | now | Needed before any in-flight spend call |